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November 19, 2024, 2:39 PM
Malaysia's natural latex supply and demand pattern may remain variable
1. Concentrated milk consumption improved within a narrow range for three consecutive months
According to the Malaysian Bureau of Statistics on November 12: Malaysia's natural latex consumption in September was 18,500 tons, an increase of 9.07% from the 17,000 tons in August. Malaysia's natural latex consumption improved in September, which is also the fact that Malaysia's natural latex demand has maintained a rising trend for nearly three months in the past two years. To a certain extent, it also reflects the current expectation that natural latex demand has begun to improve. However, judging from September data, it is still at a low level in the past three years, and the recovery of the natural latex industry is relatively limited.
Among the downstream consumption of natural latex in Malaysia, the consumption of natural latex gloves ranks first. The latex glove industry is still the main force in Malaysia's natural rubber consumption, accounting for 59.3%, tire and hose consumption accounting for 9.2%, and rubber thread accounting for 13.5%, other industries accounted for 18%.
2. Self-produced raw materials showed a significant decline, imports were relatively stable
Malaysia's natural latex output in September was 1,100 tons, down 55.52% month-on-month and 48.07% year-on-year. There was a significant decline in the same month-on-month, and the decline was close to halving. Judging from the weather conditions, September is in the alternating period of the Malaysian monsoon. There will be violent storms in the afternoon and evening, and even lightning floods. During this period, rainfall and weather disturbances are relatively frequent, and typhoon weather in September is also relatively high. The overall rubber tapping situation is affected and the output of raw materials is limited.
Malaysia's natural latex imports in September were 18,800 tons, down 3.85% month-on-month and up 22.0% year-on-year. 35%, import volume fell within a narrow range. The main reason was that the weather disturbances in the main natural rubber producing areas were more obvious in September, and the output of raw materials declined to varying degrees. The export volume of its exporting countries was relatively limited, which in turn also dragged down Malaysia's natural latex imports fell within a narrow range.
3. Self-produced raw materials have declined, demand for gloves has improved, and concentrated milk stocks have continued to be removed from the warehouse.
It can be seen from the above figure that Malaysia's natural latex stocks still maintain a narrow range of destocking. On the one hand, the weather impact in Malaysia and other major rubber-producing areas was more obvious in September, and their self-production and import volumes both declined to varying degrees. On the other hand, the demand of downstream product companies has improved for three consecutive months. Compared with demand, supply is in a relatively short state, which relatively stimulates the continued destocking of inventories.
4. market outlook
Judging from the supply and demand situation of natural latex in Malaysia, its glove industry has begun to turn for the better. As far as local glove factories are concerned, stimulated by public health and safety incidents in previous years, most glove factories have expanded production to varying degrees. After the epidemic ended, the demand for gloves fell precipitously, and the glove factories have backlog. The large inventory of finished products and production capacity far exceeding demand have also brought considerable pressure to the start of local glove factories. It is not difficult to see from the demand for natural latex in recent years that the demand for purchasing natural latex by glove factories has also been relatively weak. Since July in 24 years, the narrow improvement in demand for concentrated milk has also represented that the pressure on the start of the glove factory and finished product inventory in Malaysia is expected to improve, and the supply and demand situation in Malaysia will also change from normal to different changes.
